The breakout lottery, February data update
We tracked 50,000 LinkedIn posts in February and measured the breakout multiple (viral multiple) for every account size. That's how many times further a top 1% post travels compared to a typical post.
Find your account size below.
For accounts with 0–5K followers
The smallest accounts remain the most unpredictable. And the most interesting.
The 0–500 range has been falling every month: 149.5x in November, 74.5x in February. Four straight months where hit posts traveled less far. The lottery ticket is getting smaller.
Above that, accounts in the 1–5K range moved in the other direction. Viral potential rose across the board. The 1–2.5K range climbed from 58.5x to 69.1x. The 2.5–5K range ticked up from 52.8x to 57.5x.
If you're building an account in this range, the gap between your typical post and your best post is still wide. Wider than any other account size. One post can still change everything.
The number that stood out this month
The 500–1K follower range went from 34.7x in January to 92.5x in February. From the lowest breakout multiple of any account size under 50K to the highest of any account size we track. In one month. A handful of posts at this size can move the number dramatically. That's not noise. It's what this range looks like. Unpredictable month to month, by nature.
For accounts with 5–25K followers
Nothing changed. Three months running.
The 5–10K range went from 60.1x to 60.0x. The 10–25K range: 59.9x to 58.6x. This is the most stable part of the data. A flat stretch between 55x and 60x that has held since December.
For accounts this size, the gap between a typical post and a hit post is consistent and predictable. A top 1% post travels roughly 60 times further than a typical one. That number barely moves.
For accounts with 25–50K followers
The gap between a hit post and a typical post is shrinking. It has been every month.
The 25–50K range: 61.1x in November, 55.4x in December, 51.4x in January, 45.3x in February. Four straight months of decline. Hit posts at this size are still reaching far more people than typical posts, but the difference is narrowing.
For accounts with 50–100K followers
A similar picture to 25–50K, but with a split.
The 50–75K range dropped from 38.7x to 31.1x, continuing a steady decline. The 75–100K range barely moved: 36.9x to 35.7x. It fell sharply earlier (from 64.2x in November) but has leveled off.
For accounts this size, the trend is the same: hit posts don't travel as far relative to typical posts as they used to. The gap is narrowing.
For accounts with 100K+ followers
The most predictable range in the data. And getting more so.
The 100–250K range dropped from 33.4x to 27.3x. Above that, barely any movement: the 250–500K range held at 20.1x, the 500K–1M range held at 7.3x. At this size, a typical post and a hit post don't look as different from each other as they do at smaller account sizes.
The larger the account, the smaller the gap. And the more predictable the outcomes.
Full data, February 2026
Account size | Typical (Feb) | Top 1% (Feb) | Multiple (Jan) | Multiple (Feb) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0–500 | 40.7% | 3,028% | 87.9x | 74.5x | down |
500–1K | 26.7% | 2,470% | 34.7x | 92.5x | up |
1–2.5K | 21.9% | 1,514% | 58.5x | 69.1x | up |
2.5–5K | 15.6% | 894% | 52.8x | 57.5x | up |
5–10K | 10.9% | 652% | 60.1x | 60.0x | flat |
10–25K | 8.1% | 473% | 59.9x | 58.6x | flat |
25–50K | 6.4% | 291% | 51.4x | 45.3x | down |
50–75K | 7.6% | 237% | 38.7x | 31.1x | down |
75–100K | 7.2% | 256% | 36.9x | 35.7x | flat |
100–250K | 6.2% | 170% | 33.4x | 27.3x | down |
250–500K | 5.3% | 107% | 20.5x | 20.1x | flat |
500K–1M | 5.5% | 40% | 7.3x | 7.3x | flat |
1M+ | 1.6% | 37% | 6.2x | 22.5x | up |
Reach rate = impressions ÷ follower count. Breakout multiple = how many times further a top 1% post travels than a typical post.
The Shield Index
@TheShieldIndex / theshieldindex.com
--
We run custom analysis for teams and agencies. Specific formats, account sizes, verticals. Reply to this email.